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Government’s farm emissions plan - say goodbye small town New Zealand

Government’s farm emissions plan - say goodbye small town New Zealand The greenhouse gas reduction plan released by the government this morning will rip the guts out of small town New Zealand, putting trees where farms used to be. The plan aims to reduce sheep and beef farming in New Zealand by 20% and dairy farming by 5% to achieve the unscientific pulled-out-of-a-hat national GHG targets. This is the equivalent of the entire wine industry and half of seafood being wiped out. The government’s rehashed plan to reduce on-farm greenhouse gas emissions throws out the two and a half years of work the industry did to come up with a solution, supposedly all that time in a ‘partnership’ with government to achieve a workable solution which would not reduce food production. "This is not what we’ve got this morning. What happened to the ‘historic partnership’? "Federated Farmers is deeply unimpressed with the government’s take on the He Waka Eke Noa proposal and is concerned for our members’ futures," Federated Farmers National president and climate change spokesperson Andrew Hoggard says. "We didn’t sign up for this. It’s gut-wrenching to think we now have this proposal from government which rips the heart out of the work we did. Out of the families who farm this land. "Our plan was to keep farmers farming. Now they’ll be selling up so fast you won’t even hear the dogs barking on the back of the ute as they drive off. "Some overseas buyer can plant trees and take the carbon cash." The scariest impact from the government’s rehash of the He Waka Eke Noa proposal was that it’s own modelling showed the impact on sheep and beef farming would be as high as 20%. It also shows that world agricultural emissions would increase, not decrease, under this plan. "The government’s plan means the small towns, like Wairoa, Pahiatua, Taumaranui - pretty much the whole of the East Coast and central North Island and a good chunk of the top of the South - will be surrounded by pine trees quicker than you can say ‘ETS application’." So all the small town cafes, car yards, schools, pubs, rugby clubs, hairdressers and supermarkets can say goodbye to the small town business supported by the agriculture around them. ENDS For more information contact: Andrew Hoggard, 027 230 7363 or Leigh Catley | GM Communications, Federated Farmers Email: lcatley@fedfarm.org.nz, Mobile: +64 (0)27 241 4350

Latest weekly report 

Latest weekly report 

The China market for mutton. An update.

China demand has pulled record numbers in mutton imports, particularly in the last quarter of 2017.

Overall China meat import data broken into major categories shows the sharp rise in values and volumes of mutton imports in 2017.

First a look at New Zealand. NZ annual sheep slaughter in season 2015-2016 was 3,793,597 head, down 5.6% on the previous year of 4,019,779 head. Sheep slaughter dropped a further 6.4% in 2016-2017 season (3,551,842 head). To week 12 of season 2017-2018, sheep slaughter is up 10.9% to 1,303,244 head. As week 12 is the festive season, slaughter dropped back. Against that, New Zealand has shipped record volumes of mutton to China in the last quarter of 2017 according to Agri HQ market intelligence and based on New Zealand exports stats.

Australian mutton production reached 172,201 tonnes Jan-Nov 2017, a rise of 10.6% on the same period in 2016 (155,626 tonnes). That is almost an additional 17,000 tonnes. Mutton exports to China surged in Oct-Dec 2017 with a rise of 264%; a lift in exports from 5,468 tonnes Oct-Dec 2016 to almost 20,000 tonnes Oct-Dec 2017.

In relation to China mutton imports, the data available from a Hong Kong source shows estimated 2017 annual mutton and goat meat imports of 241,000 tonnes at a value of US$849.2 million. This compares with 220,063 tonnes in 2016 calendar year at a far lower value of US$573.9 million. If these estimates are correct, China mutton and goat meat values have increased 47%. Historical data collated by MLA show annual Chinese mutton imports as follows from 2000 calendar year.

China has resumed its demand for mutton after imports eased for two years 2015,2016. However the exponential growth in import values in 2017 augers well for demand.

If we look at China mutton retail and wholesale prices, we see mutton retail prices have increased from 60.7 Yuan per kg in September to 64.98 Y per kg in December 2017. In wholesale prices, September 2017 reported mutton at 47.92 Y per kg and this increased to 52.80 Y per kg in December 2017, a lift of 10%.

Food security and new evidence

A new journal article reviewed today after an AMIC news release sheds valuable light on the matter of global livestock production, food security and differing production systems.

Livestock: On our plates or eating at our table? A new analysis of the feed/food debate

The new articles indicates a wider perspective of global livestock production and its contribution to improved food security. It notes the differing production systems and low resources and land impact of grass fed and extensive grazing regimes as practiced in many parts of Australia and New Zealand. "And while some of the global discussion on food security may address the question of the feed/food competition, it often fails to mention the diversity of animal diets around the world and the various levels of efficiency in production systems"

in 2006, FAO released a study called Livestock's Long Shadow. This release saw a stream of articles and studies portraying negative aspects of livestock production on the environment. 

From 2009, research conducted at UC Davis countered the arguments and narrative of some of the earlier research and media reports. This useful presentation format published by Frank Mitloehner details the research. " it is simply not true that consuming less meat and dairy products will help stop climate change, says a University of California authority on farming and greenhouse gases."

The debate continued to rage and further articles in 2014, 2015 and 2016 pushed the notion of the negative of meat production systems and climate change. 

In 2014 an article entitled "Livestock and global change: Emerging issues for sustainable food systems" noted some research has led to "inaccurate simplifications of the messages surrounding how to manage the livestock sector’s growth in the future." and "The benefits associated with livestock are societal, economic, and environmental. Livestock contribute 17% to the global food balance, in terms of calorific intake per person per day, and 33% of the protein in human diets"

An encouraging article appeared in 2015 noting that "Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures" and "extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance." "results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so." CSIRO also published this paper. "Australian National Outlook 2015 report"

FAO document Food Security and global efforts and publish updates and data. Recent website link notes: "There is more than enough food produced in the world to feed everyone, yet 815 million people go hungry."

In very brief summary, negative articles continue to be published and promoted by anti agriculture and protein groups. The basis of the research and quotes are selective and are largely erroneous and industry should be vigilant for further promotion of anti meat diets and seek to counter the myths espoused with sound research and factual information. 

A range of Australian research:

Climate Clever Beef - climate clever beef B.NBP.0564_Final_Report January 2014

Measuring methane in the rumen under different production systems as a predictor of methane emissions B.CCH.6210

Development of gas selective membranes for intra-ruminal capsules - Department of Agriculture Ref No 01200 B.CCH.6220 August 2015

Enteric methane mitigation strategies through manipulation of feeding systems for ruminant production in southern Australia

Lead organisation: Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Victoria

01200017-project-fact-sheet_southern-feeding-systems_b-cch-6460_final

Australian lamb consumption and perspective

There is current discussion about changes to lamb specification and it occurred to me to write up a story on some history of lamb and sheepmeat consumption in Australia. The key issue is the continued decline in lamb consumption to estimated current levels of 8.9 kilograms per head and 57% of carcase lamb production being exported.

In the 1973 ABS Yearbook, the section on agriculture and rural Australia contained the following statement: "in 1959-60, consumption of mutton and lamb at 103 lb per head of population, exceeded that of beef and veal for the first time on record." That is equivalent to almost 47 kgs per head. The graphic above indicates lamb consumption in 1972 at 54 lbs or 24.4 kgs per head of population. Exports as a percentage of production were only 12%. Current exports of lamb are highly successful and Australia attracts premiums and leading market position in many Asian countries as well as a major supplier to USA and Canada. While past glories of lamb consumption and promotion on the domestic market in Australia are behind us, it is our opinion that any change in lamb specification is unwise and could risk lamb's appeal in growing export markets and the very important home market in Australia.