The China market for mutton. An update.

China demand has pulled record numbers in mutton imports, particularly in the last quarter of 2017.

Overall China meat import data broken into major categories shows the sharp rise in values and volumes of mutton imports in 2017.

First a look at New Zealand. NZ annual sheep slaughter in season 2015-2016 was 3,793,597 head, down 5.6% on the previous year of 4,019,779 head. Sheep slaughter dropped a further 6.4% in 2016-2017 season (3,551,842 head). To week 12 of season 2017-2018, sheep slaughter is up 10.9% to 1,303,244 head. As week 12 is the festive season, slaughter dropped back. Against that, New Zealand has shipped record volumes of mutton to China in the last quarter of 2017 according to Agri HQ market intelligence and based on New Zealand exports stats.

Australian mutton production reached 172,201 tonnes Jan-Nov 2017, a rise of 10.6% on the same period in 2016 (155,626 tonnes). That is almost an additional 17,000 tonnes. Mutton exports to China surged in Oct-Dec 2017 with a rise of 264%; a lift in exports from 5,468 tonnes Oct-Dec 2016 to almost 20,000 tonnes Oct-Dec 2017.

In relation to China mutton imports, the data available from a Hong Kong source shows estimated 2017 annual mutton and goat meat imports of 241,000 tonnes at a value of US$849.2 million. This compares with 220,063 tonnes in 2016 calendar year at a far lower value of US$573.9 million. If these estimates are correct, China mutton and goat meat values have increased 47%. Historical data collated by MLA show annual Chinese mutton imports as follows from 2000 calendar year.

China has resumed its demand for mutton after imports eased for two years 2015,2016. However the exponential growth in import values in 2017 augers well for demand.

If we look at China mutton retail and wholesale prices, we see mutton retail prices have increased from 60.7 Yuan per kg in September to 64.98 Y per kg in December 2017. In wholesale prices, September 2017 reported mutton at 47.92 Y per kg and this increased to 52.80 Y per kg in December 2017, a lift of 10%.