Vietnam is the major market for Indian buffalo

Vietnam purchased over 600,000 tonnes of Indian buffalo in the 2015-2016 reported year. Value of US$1.9 billion at a unit value of US$3,293 per tonne. An article published over 12 months ago in Chinese media indicates that a proportion of the "grey" trade (smuggled meat) came via Vietnam.

Data sourced from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam shows the decline in the Vietnam domestic buffalo herd and the trend down in recent years of the cattle herd.

In the 7 months of 2016 Australia exported a total volume of 3,984 tonnes to Vietnam, mainly beef and beef offals. It is likely that a proportion of this trade finds its way via the grey channel into China.

Vietnam is a huge market for Australian live cattle exports with almost 283,000 head shipped in the fiscal year ended June 2016, compared to 304,000 the previous year. The market and trade has been plagued by adverse publicity and supply chain breaches. The record published by Agriculture Department dates back to 2013 for Vietnam. Investigations 106 and 104 are still in progress. A breach notified in February #97 was covered in a first part of year release.

India exported meat worth USD 568 million in April-May

Indian Express online reported the export earnings of Indian meat exports in April - May 2016 of US$568 million. However statistics from APEDA indicate the unit value of buffalo meat fell from US$3,147 per tonne to US$2,887 per tonne, a drop of 8%. Unit values have been falling each reporting year since 2013-14 and unit values are now down in the leading export market of Vietnam from US$3,425 per tonne in 2013-2014 to US$3293 in 2015-2016 reporting period. Overall volumes also fell in 2015-2016 to  1,314,158  tonnes, down from 1,475,526 tonnes  in 2014-2015. All market unit value in 2015-2016 was US$3,096 per tonne. Vietnam and Saudi Arabia are higher value markets and clearly very important to India and APEDA has announced a visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Vietnam next month. Indonesia has approved import of Indian buffalo but there is some resistance by Indonesian cattle producers concerned with quarantine, biosecurity issues.

USA lamb retail performance impressive - Australian lamb arrivals up 19%.

The US Beef Board publishes detailed sales and volume figures on a monthly basis and the 12 months figures to June 2016 are now available on the Beef Board site.

Annual retail sales of lamb amounted to US$407 million in 2015-2016 year ended June, a rise of 4.7%. Volume of lamb sold in the 12 months to June was 57.3 million lbs (25,990 tonnes), a jump of a healthy 6.7%. These are retail sales scan data sourced from FreshLook data, categorized by the VMMEAT® SystemFive Weeks Ending 06/26/16. The USA lamb market continues to perform better than remainder of the meat category including beef, pork, chicken and turkey. There was a 1.6% drop in the average lamb retail price to US$7.10 per lb, with the average retail price well in excess of beef, pork and chicken at retail. Beef average price was US$5.06 per lb. Australia exported over 53,000 tonnes of lamb to USA in the 12 months to June 2016. Australia has done particularly well in relation to lamb arrivals in USA and up to week 31 2016, tonnage equaled 34,070 tonnes, 19% higher than the same period in 2015. Australian lamb is now almost 2.5 times greater in volume of arrivals in USA year to date compared to New Zealand lamb and accounts for 73% of total imported lamb arrivals.

OECD FAO sheepmeat imports projections

The OECD FAO projections released in July 2016 includes a focus on meat. The data visualization above shows the size of the world sheep meat market by regions. (OECD (2016), "Meat", in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2016-10-en) The projections indicate the rise in developing countries sheep meat consumption compared to production in those countries. The differential is projected to rise to 817,000 tonnes carcase weight by 2025. This is an additional 174,000 tonnes. Per capita sheep meat consumption by selected countries and regions are provided in a spreadsheet.

Paraguay Chile meat export update

Chile has been a major market for Paraguay exports.

USDA FAS report in March 2016 notes: Chile’s beef imports come mainly from Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). In CY2015 beef exports prices from Mercosur countries were 8% lower than 2014, Paraguay had the lowest price from these countries and the highest reduction in price (11%). This price reduction has to do mainly with lower prices paid by Russia (major beef destination from Mercosur), Chile and Brazil. Paraguay was the main supplier of beef, but had an outbreak of “food and mouth disease” on “2011” which lowered its participation on Chilean Market; Paraguay has been recovering since then and has regained its position as the main beef supplier for Chile. Brazilian beef exports to Chile have been favored by a high depreciation of their currency (Reais). In January 2016, Chilean total imports of beef were 11.5% higher over January 2015, which breakdowns to 32.2 % increase from Paraguay, 4.7% increase from Brazil and a 5.1% increase from Argentina (based on ODEPA 2016 statistics). Chile data indicates Jan-June 2016 value of fresh chilled boneless beef imports were valued at $346 million, slightly above the previous year.

Australia ships a small quantity of beef and beef offals to Chile

USDA FAS reports Paraguayan beef exports in 2016 are forecast 435,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe). This record is expected as a result of increased beef output and a steady foreign demand. Paraguay continues to expand cattle grain feeding taking advantage of low feed costs and high cattle prices in dollar terms. Domestic consumption in 2016 is projected at 187,000 tons cwe, marginally higher than the past few years. Paraguayans are increasingly demanding higher quality beef cuts. The EU resumed imports in May 2015. The World Beef Report recently reported Paraguay steer prices lower than the Mercosur average and shown at US$2.76 kg carcase weight.

Australian meat export price index trends

Australian meat export prices surged over 47 index points throughout 2013 and 2014 to their peak of 147.8 in the September quarter 2015. Prices have corrected since that time with a loss of 17 index points and almost 10 points lost between Dec quarter 2015 and June quarter 2016. Today's release of the ABS trade figures for June 2016 saw beef export values for the year ended June drop to $8.5 billion AUD, down 6% from the fiscal year ended June 2015. Volume and values have contracted but export meat prices remain at historically high levels.

History of the Russian ban on Australian meat

Australian Department of Agriculture meat notice 2014-05 confirmed the relevant ban which excludes sheepmeat, goatmeat and offals of those species. The ban has been extended and total beef exports to CIS (Russia) as recently as the fiscal year ended June 2013 were 24.372 tonnes. The Russian publication TASS reported analysts estimate losses of Western countries from sanctions at $60.2 bln. Australia has managed to continue to supply quantities of sheepmeat, goatmeat and relevant offals. Year to June 2016 figures below.

Exports of sheepmeat to Russia in the fiscal year to June 2016 are less than half the level of 6,088 tonnes to CIS for year end June 2013. A publication estimates the losses to a range of supplying countries of the EU. A Reuters article last week indicated Russia in efforts to remove sanctions imposed by the EU.