Thursday, September 21, 2017

Food security and new evidence

A new journal article reviewed today after an AMIC news release sheds valuable light on the matter of global livestock production, food security and differing production systems.

Livestock: On our plates or eating at our table? A new analysis of the feed/food debate

The new articles indicates a wider perspective of global livestock production and its contribution to improved food security. It notes the differing production systems and low resources and land impact of grass fed and extensive grazing regimes as practiced in many parts of Australia and New Zealand. "And while some of the global discussion on food security may address the question of the feed/food competition, it often fails to mention the diversity of animal diets around the world and the various levels of efficiency in production systems"

in 2006, FAO released a study called Livestock's Long Shadow. This release saw a stream of articles and studies portraying negative aspects of livestock production on the environment. 

From 2009, research conducted at UC Davis countered the arguments and narrative of some of the earlier research and media reports. This useful presentation format published by Frank Mitloehner details the research. " it is simply not true that consuming less meat and dairy products will help stop climate change, says a University of California authority on farming and greenhouse gases."

The debate continued to rage and further articles in 2014, 2015 and 2016 pushed the notion of the negative of meat production systems and climate change. 

In 2014 an article entitled "Livestock and global change: Emerging issues for sustainable food systems" noted some research has led to "inaccurate simplifications of the messages surrounding how to manage the livestock sector’s growth in the future." and "The benefits associated with livestock are societal, economic, and environmental. Livestock contribute 17% to the global food balance, in terms of calorific intake per person per day, and 33% of the protein in human diets"

An encouraging article appeared in 2015 noting that "Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures" and "extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance." "results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so." CSIRO also published this paper. "Australian National Outlook 2015 report"

FAO document Food Security and global efforts and publish updates and data. Recent website link notes: "There is more than enough food produced in the world to feed everyone, yet 815 million people go hungry."

In very brief summary, negative articles continue to be published and promoted by anti agriculture and protein groups. The basis of the research and quotes are selective and are largely erroneous and industry should be vigilant for further promotion of anti meat diets and seek to counter the myths espoused with sound research and factual information. 

A range of Australian research:
Climate Clever Beef - climate clever beef B.NBP.0564_Final_Report January 2014

Measuring methane in the rumen under different production systems as a predictor of methane emissions B.CCH.6210

Development of gas selective membranes for intra-ruminal capsules - Department of Agriculture Ref No 01200 B.CCH.6220 August 2015

Enteric methane mitigation strategies through manipulation of feeding systems for ruminant production in southern Australia
Lead organisation: Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Victoria
01200017-project-fact-sheet_southern-feeding-systems_b-cch-6460_final

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Australian lamb consumption and perspective

There is current discussion about changes to lamb specification and it occurred to me to write up a story on some history of lamb and sheepmeat consumption in Australia. The key issue is the continued decline in lamb consumption to estimated current levels of 8.9 kilograms per head and 57% of carcase lamb production being exported.

In the 1973 ABS Yearbook, the section on agriculture and rural Australia contained the following statement: "in 1959-60, consumption of mutton and lamb at 103 lb per head of population, exceeded that of beef and veal for the first time on record." That is equivalent to almost 47 kgs per head. The graphic above indicates lamb consumption in 1972 at 54 lbs or 24.4 kgs per head of population. Exports as a percentage of production were only 12%. Current exports of lamb are highly successful and Australia attracts premiums and leading market position in many Asian countries as well as a major supplier to USA and Canada. While past glories of lamb consumption and promotion on the domestic market in Australia are behind us, it is our opinion that any change in lamb specification is unwise and could risk lamb's appeal in growing export markets and the very important home market in Australia. 

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Saudi Arabia meat trade review

According to the WTO, meat and edible offal of poultry was the most important agriculture import to Saudi Arabia in 2015.
USDA projects Saudi imports of ready to cook weight of broiler will be 790,000 tonnes in 2017. Saudi Arabia is the third largest importer after Japan and Mexico.

Australian trade in red meat is displayed in below graphic. Carcase mutton is the largest component of the trade following by offal and beef. Australian chilled lamb exports exceed frozen lamb exports to Saudi Arabia and chilled beef exports from Australia are about half frozen beef exports.
The USA was re-admitted to supply Saudi Arabia with beef in July 2016 after being banned for 4 years.  Below graphic is FAO OECD projection of Saudi Arabia production by meat type:
FAO is projecting a higher level of poultry imports than USDA and a steady increase going forward. Sheep meat imports are forecast at 125,000 tonnes carcase weight in 2017, with beef imports 185,000 tonnes.

Saudi Arabia imported around 15,000 tonnes of goat meat according to UN Comtrade figures in 2015 with a value of US$79 million.

Saudi Customs and Statistics figures for February 2017 showed imports of chilled beef from Australia of 107 tonnes. The graphic below shows Brazil is the largest chilled beef supplier.
our preliminary work indicates no USA chilled or frozen beef was imported by Saudi Arabia in February 2017.
Frozen imports of beef are again headed by Brazil.
India was the second largest supplier of frozen bovine meat in February 2017 and priced at similar levels to import values of Australian frozen beef. Brazilian frozen beef import tonnage was 2,148 tonnes at a unit value of US$3.75 kg. Australia was third in line behind India and Pakistan in imports of fresh chilled lamb carcases into Saudi Arabia in February. Ethiopia was 4th ahead of New Zealand. Australia was the largest supplier of fresh bone in sheep meat in February out of only two suppliers, with New Zealand a way back. Australia supplied almost double that of New Zealand in terms of frozen sheep meat carcases. 
New Zealand was the largest supplier by value in bone in frozen sheep meat cuts in February 2017.








Thursday, June 8, 2017

Australia, India, Brazil - April 2017 beef exports snapshot

We have the Indian, Australian and Brazilian bovine meat export numbers for April 2017 and it provides an interesting snapshot of how the competition is shaping up early part of this shipping year.

India is well ahead with over 97,000 tonnes of frozen buffalo shipped in the month of April. Mostly boneless in cartons. Range of specifications.
Brazil is next with over 70,000 tonnes in April 2017, down 16,000 tonnes on the same month in 2016.
Australia is ranked third in tonnage in April 2017, with just under 67,000 tonnes in the month of April 2017, a sharp correction in volume exported of almost 18,000 tonnes due to reduced cattle supplies and record prices in Australia.
 What is most interesting is the unit values per kg in USD. Total Indian buffalo unit value in April was US$2.86 per kg. This compares with Brazilian fresh frozen beef export unit value of US$4.16 per kg in April 2017. There is a notable rise in unit value in Brazil for fresh frozen beef of 11% compared with April 2016. Australian unit value for total beef exports are estimated from ABS trade figures and April 2017 beef and veal shipped weight and comes to US$6.01 per kg. All these figures are comparable as they generally refer to FAS or FOB ports of export. The total value of beef/bovine exports is also of interest, with India running at US$278 million in April, Brazil $403 million and Australia almost level with Brazil on lower volume at US$402 million.

We have also estimated some key market unit values for Australia based on import market statistics in the key markets of Japan, USA and Korea. Japan leads in unit value per kg at US$6.99 per kg.

Brazilian figures by key markets are not available for April 2017, however Jan-Apr 2017 is available in this link.

We have a preliminary estimate of USA fresh, chilled and frozen beef exports to all destinations in April 2017 of US$468 million. Our estimate of total fresh, chilled and frozen beef export volume for April 2017 is 70,000 tonnes. Unit value per kg is calculated as US$6.78 per kg.

Monday, June 5, 2017

Australia USA beef imports in selected Asian countries

Malaysia is a key market in Asia and the second largest market globally for Indian buffalo exports.

WTO trade graphic

Malaysian import statistics for the first 3 months of 2017 show Australia supplied MYR 72.4 million and, on current exchange rates, this amounts to almost $17 million USD of beef. North American beef supplies were minimal at MYR $173,000.

For the 2 months in 2017 available for the Philippines, Australia supplied USD$8.8 million for beef and USA USD$4.2 million.

The third market examined was Thailand. In 2017 Australia supplied USD$13.4 million for beef and USA USD$3.4 million.


Friday, May 26, 2017

Global cattle prices tracking by EU Beef Market Observatory

Yanks have sprinted to the head of the field and I am wondering if they can hold on. I hope so, as it augers well for US demand for beef and helps Aussie compete in Asia.
USA live steer prices in the USDA cattle dashboard are also in very high territory.
Formula net live cattle reported as $1.4154 per lb live weight. Very confusing in relation to futures markets as there is so little cash trade.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/livestock/live-cattle.html

Yesterday's USDA Direct quotes topped around $1.32 US per lb live weight.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lm_ct100.txt

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Argentina's slow climb back to major protein exporter

An article in local media points to efforts of Argentina to regain its market share in red meat exports globally.
"At the beginning of the 2000s, Argentina was among the top five beef exporters in the world, only surpassed by great cattle powers such as the United States, Brazil and Australia.
However, during the last 17 years he has lost positions in that global ranking to the point that for this year it already ranks it in number 11, surpassed by nations like New Zealand, Canada, India, or partners in Mercosur: Uruguay And Paraguay. According to a document from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), for 2017 Argentina is reserved the 11th place, with a level of exports that will be about 250,000 tons, when a total of 9,641,000 tons of beef. According to the official agency of the United States, the three largest global suppliers this year will be India with 1,850,000 tons; Brazil with 1,800,000 tons and Australia with 1,400,000 tons."
http://eleconomista.com.mx/industrias/2017/04/18/exportaciones-carne-bovina-argentina-siguen-baja

In February 2017, beef exports totaled 18 thousand tons of product weight, equivalent to 25 thousand tons of beef, implying an increase of 10 percent over the final figure of the previous month, which fell to 23 thousand tons Weight res In the first two months of this year, shipments have remained firm and relatively stable. This is a consequence of the evolution of both chilled and frozen meat.
http://www.abc-consorcio.com.ar/

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Australian lamb continues to do well in US market

Australian lamb continues to do well in the crowded retail and foodservice market in USA. USA Australian lamb arrivals to week 14 2017 were up 11% to 18,526 tonnes. Australian lamb was 73% of total arrivals of 25,233 tonnes compared with New Zealand lamb 26%. Only minor supplies from Canada and Iceland have been recorded.

"With the Easter holiday this weekend, lamb and veal retail activity sharply increased by 53.2%. The feature rate followed suit with an increase of 19%, while the special rate also rose by 0.2%. Lamb retail activity index
showed an increase of 60.4%. The amount of roasts showcased shot up by 82.9% while the amount of chops featured sank by 26.7%. Leg cuts, both bone-in and semi-boneless, were the most widely advertised item among the lamb features this week as the general price trend this period was steady to firm."
USDA retail report

3,845 million pounds (1,744 tonnes) of Australian and New Zealand were traded wholesale in USDA report for April 17 2017.

US Beef Board figures for 12 months to February 2017 show lamb at retail had a sales value of US$405 million, a rise of 1%. This compares with sales value falling 3.3% for beef and 6.6% for pork. Lamb volume for the 12 months at US retail (based on scan data) was almost 58 million pounds. Unit sales value of all lamb sold at retail was US$7.03 per lb.

Monday, April 10, 2017

Spanish bovine exports to Indonesia


Indonesia has tried a few different sources of imported beef and buffalo. These include Spain, which according to EU statistics, has exported over 500 tonnes of frozen bovine meat into Indonesia from June 2016 to December 2016. Unit values ranged from a low of Euro 3.34 to Euro 4.25 per kg in the last month of export in December. The latest value of 4.25 Euro is equivalent to 60,000 IDR. Spain is one of the larger EU beef processors after France and Germany. However, like other EU countries, a great deal of the bovine meat is produced from bulls. Ireland and the UK are unusual in that a large percentage of their beef comes from steers and heifers.

EU Meat Market Observatory - Beef & veal

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

China retail meat price trends

Beef and pork prices have trended up but mutton is on the downtrend and chicken prices on a weaker trend according to the National Bureau of Statistics in China.
In Australian dollar terms, retail beef prices are equivalent to AUD$12.50 per kg on average and mutton retail prices average AUD$11 per kg. 

Below table graphic highlights Chinese meat imports in January 2017 compared with the previous year.




Food safety, the meat industry and scandals - a perspective

Recent history is full of scandals in respect to food safety and the latest Brazilian meat inspection scandal is but the latest stage in a long line of unsavory episodes.

Anyone who read "The Jungle", the famous book by Upton Sinclair, which launched the US government oversight of meat inspection, would be familiar with the very poor state of industry practices in the early 20th century in the meat packing districts of Chicago.

Australia - meat substitution scandal 1983. Corruption and criminality and the subject of a Royal Commission. Substitution of horsemeat and kangaroo meat in beef shipments to USA and discovered by US port of entry inspection. Species testing was carried out and it ushered in a range of revised Commonwealth oversight and meat inspection as well as the AUS-MEAT product description system and additional oversight and cost imposts.

USA and Australia - organochloride residues 1987. I was closely involved in this dispute as I was Australian representative of the Australian Meat & Livestock Corporation in New York at the time. It involved cattle grazing on sugar cane and potato remnants in pastures and beef was tainted with DDT and Dieldrin, products which had been banned in USA. The whole beef trade worth $1 billion from Australia to USA was in jeopardy and for a short time there was an embargo placed on Australian beef imports, at that time our largest beef export market.

USA E coli 1993. A deadly outbreak of E. coli 0157 in California in a chain restaurant called "Jack in the Box" which was using both domestic and imported beef.

UK Ireland Europe meat substitution scandal 2013. Corruption and criminality, substitution of horsemeat in meat sold in retail chains and other outlets. Possible breakdown in meat inspection protocols.

China chicken and food scandal OSI Foods 2014. Corruption and criminality. Poor oversight by firms and end users and out of date and contaminated meat and meat products.

Brazil meat inspection corruption scandal March 2017. Corruption, criminality. Dubious oversight of meat inspection and enforcement. Rotten meat found and inspectors dismissed. Implication of large international companies.  Early days.


Sunday, March 5, 2017

Indonesian beef market

Australia's populous closest neighbour is a large beef consumer given it is a developing country. Beef prices remain high in spite of a range of Indonesian government initiatives to keep beef prices stable and preferably around
IDR 80,000.  Recent Australian beef shipments have fallen in line with reduced cattle slaughter following a number of high production years caused by drought. February figures below, source: DAWR
The market takes a wide variety of beef cuts and beef offal and fancymeat, mostly in frozen form, due to the limited cold chain infrastructure and the stage of development. However, supermarkets and food service consumption is rising in line with population increases and relatively strong economic growth.

Government efforts to limit beef price increases in recent years have included relaxation of rules to allow import of Indian buffalo meat and also relaxation of weight limits on slaughter cattle imports from Australia. A wider search for alternative supplies has been conducted with small tonnages imported from as far away as Spain.

Below graphic indicates a range of commodities and shows recent increases in beef prices as well as other commodities. This has revived discussion of possible cartels in relation to the beef market in the country. Source: Jakarta market monitoring agency.

http://www.tribunnews.com/bisnis/2017/03/03/pemerintah-serius-perangi-kartel-daging-sapi TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA - The Ministry of Finance signed a cooperation agreement with the Business Competition Supervisory Commission (KPPU) to suppress the price of beef in the market.In monitoring the government, the price of beef is currently very strong cartel practices. You see, in addition to local production, the supply of beef in Indonesia is still filled by imported meat.However, although imports of cattle and meat products increased by up to a dozen times, but prices continue to remain high. This confirms the existence of cartel practices in the meat market.To that end, the government together with the Commission to prepare a fine of up to Rp 25 billion to provide a deterrent effect.

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Sheep, lamb and goatmeat exports have a bumper year in US market

2016 was a bumper year for Australian sheepmeat and goatmeat in the USA market. USDA statistics show a 34% lift in mutton imports from Australia. Goatmeat imports from Australia increased 20% and Australian lamb imports increased 17%. USA imports of Australian goatmeat reached 19,203 tonnes. MLA Goatmeat report in 2016 noted that in 2015 that the majority of Australian goatmeat was shipped to USA.
Goatmeat carcase is by far the most significant goatmeat item exported to USA market. A breakup to all markets for 11 months by cut is shown below: