Argentina positioning its meat trade for future growth

After some years of confused and sometimes counterproductive policies, the government of Argentina is seeking to boost its meat export efforts. "Under the Seminar Carne Argentina 2030, Livestock we all win, organized by the Institute for the Promotion of Beef Argentina (IPCVA), members of the Consortium of Meat Exporters Argentinas ABC exposed on the prospects and main challenges meatpacking industry for the next decade." News article "2025 show an increase in the slaughter of 29%, reaching 16 million head, and an increase of 47% in production, projected at 4 million tons of meat. In terms of consumption, it would remain stable at 2.5 million tons, and expect exports will reach 1.5 million tons, representing 7.000 billion. In this way, our country would be among the top 5 exporters of beef. "

June export values dropped 21% from June 2015 according to IPCVA. "the average price per ton FOB was approximately us $ 9,400 for chilled boneless cuts; and us $ 4,450 for frozen boneless cuts. "

"China was the main destination, in volume, for meat Argentina vaccine during the first six months of 2016 with approximately 26,2 thousand tons, followed by Israel, 11,300 tons; and then by Germany, 11.0 thousand tons. As for the value of the foreign exchange, the main market for the period from January to June 2016 was Germany, which accounts for (28%) of the value total exports of chilled beef, frozen and processed in the period, followed by China (21% of total), and Israel (14%)."

Rapid rise in Korean beef imports first half 2016

Figures released by the Korean International Trade Association show the volume of Korean beef imports jumped 31% January to June 2016 compared to last year.

January to June values jumped 17%. Unit value in June was equivalent to US$5.70 per kg, slipping from the 6 months to June average unit value of $5.75 per kg. The annual unit value in 2015 was US$6.15 per kg. June 2016 beef imports from Australia totalled 15,245 tonnes and USA 12,812 tonnes. Australia was 52.4% of total Korean beef imports for first half 2016. USA was 39% of total first half imports.
Australian Jan-June 2016 beef exports increased 8.5% and the breakup of cuts is shown below.

Source: DA, MLA

Uruguay beef exports turn around in June 2016

Uruguayan beef imports into USA are down 30%, year to date, according to USDA at 18,178 tonnes. This is at least partially due to rejection issues earlier this year with USDA FSIS. Uruguay cattle slaughter was over 200,000 head in June 2016, 19% higher than the same month last year. Sheepmeat slaughter has been running well below 2015 in all months of 2016. Beef exports in June were the highest for the year. Beef export values were 9% down on last year in June 2016 and sheepmeat export values were almost 22% down. China accounted for 38% of meat exports, followed by the EU at 23% and USA at 14.4%. (up until July 2016). Average beef price in the latest week published was US$3,427 per tonne and sheepmeat US$4,496 per tonne. Beef values are running 10.5% lower than 2015 for the period to 16 July. Sheepmeat vales are running 9.3% lower than the first half of 2015.

Japan Moves Closer to Abolishing Domestic BSE Testing

The USDA FAS GAIN report dated 13 July 2016 and released today says: "the Food Safety Commission Prion Sub-Committee concluded its draft risk assessment of a proposal to abolish domestic bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) testing requirements for cattle 48-months of age and older."

Details are provided on the Japanese website.

Indonesian domestic market beef prices stuck at high levels

The Indonesian news media has conducted a running commentary on Lebaran or Idul Fitri in the country in relation to commodity prices and in particular to local market beef prices.

The local Jakarta market price trends are shown above. These are for beef hinds and the average price today was IDR 124 231 / kg. The quotes are obtained from the local reporting agency - Food Information Jakarta. Prices for beef items rose again today and this has caused commentary and complaints about policies and implementation by a range of government agencies. The average price of beef hinds converted at today's exchange rate of IDR9770 to AUD equates to AUD$12.71 per kg. Other beef average prices today were 117,073 kg. The upper end of this category was 130,000 kg.

Australian retail lamb - yield weighted price averages

Based on Woolworth's weekly grocery price catalogue, released each Wednesday, agInfo has calculated retail yield weighted lamb price trends.

Lamb racks courtesy of MLA beef and lamb

Regular featuring of lamb legs, shoulders, short loin chops and racks, has seen the yield weighted retail average trend down in 2016. The basis of yield weighting is to ensure that retail prices are weighted by the percentage yield of the cut in the whole value of the lamb carcase.

Namibia gains access to USA meat import market

Eligibility of Namibia To Export Meat Products to the United States A Rule by the Food Safety and Inspection Service on 07/13/2016

The Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is amending the Federal meat inspection regulations to add Namibia to the list of countries eligible to export meat and meat products to the United States. FSIS has reviewed Namibia's laws, regulations, and inspection system as implemented, and has determined that they are equivalent to the Federal Meat Inspection Act (FMIA), the regulations implementing this statute, and the United States food safety system for meat and meat products.
Under this final rule, Namibia will only be able to export to the United States boneless (not ground) raw beef products, such as primal cuts, chuck, blade, and beef trimmings, processed in certified Namibian establishments, because FSIS only assessed Namibia's meat inspection system with respect to these products. Namibia would need to submit additional information for FSIS to review before FSIS would allow Namibia to export other beef product or product from other types of livestock to the United States. All products that Namibia exports to the United States will be subject to reinspection at United States ports-of-entry by FSIS inspectors.

Mexico commences export of pork to China

http://www.gob.mx/sagarpa/prensa/inicia-mexico-exportaciones-de-carne-de-cerdo-a-china

as a result of trade negotiations between the governments of Mexico and the People's Republic of China, today the starting signal to the first shipment of Mexican pork to the Asian country gave, with an estimate of achieving exports of between 20 and 30 thousand tons this product with a market value of one thousand 500 million pesos a year.

Reopening of Saudi Arabia to U.S. Beef

Washington, D.C. - Ambassador Michael Froman and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack released the following statement upon the decision by Saudi Arabia on June 28, 2016 to reopen its market to U.S. beef

"Saudi Arabia will allow imports of beef and beef products from U.S. cattle less than 30 months of age, with access expanded to include products from U.S. cattle under 48 months after a phase-in period.  Products eligible for export include bone-in and de-boned beef, offal, ground and processed beef.

 "USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service is developing a program to certify U.S. beef to Saudi Arabia's import requirements to address the specific conditions in that market and will publish details as soon as they are available.  The AMS Program should be announced in the next few weeks.

“This agreement is yet another example of the Obama Administration’s commitment to addressing barriers blocking U.S. exports. Reopening Saudi Arabia’s market will create additional export opportunities for American ranchers. The United States exported over $31 million of U.S. beef and beef products in 2011, prior to the ban.  Saudi Arabia consumers will now have the opportunity to enjoy high quality American beef.”
statement

Decline of Australian chilled beef shipments to Japan

In 1995, Australian chilled beef shipments to Japan totalled 211,654 tonnes, a massive 95% share of total Australian chilled beef shipments. By 2001, chilled beef to Japan as a share of total chilled beef exports had declined to 84%. Discovery of BSE in North American cattle caused market disruptions from late 2003 and Australian chilled beef to Japan had dropped to 75% of total chilled exports. See below chart from DA figures.

Japan continued to purchase a lower proportion of total beef shipments from Australia in the form of chilled beef. The major slide in Australian chilled beef shipments to Japan continued from 2005 even when Australian chilled beef exports to other markets began to increase. The reduction has continued in recent years right up until the latest fiscal year ended June 2016. Japan chilled beef shipments totalled 123,764 tonnes for the past 12 months, a share of only 40% of total chilled beef exports. This trend is worrying as chilled beef prices drive the whole export beef category value and Japan is a premium market. Australian chilled exports have increased to a range of markets. USA has been strong but has dropped over the past 12 months with lower beef production. Korea has been steady but EU has been flat and Middle East chilled beef shipments have trended down.

Source: DA

Taiwan resumes imports of Canadian beef

Taiwan yesterday lifted a ban on beef imports from Canada, effective immediately.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/07/09/2003650671

Taiwan authority website link

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said the decision to resume Canadian beef imports was made after prudent assessment which led the agency to believe that risks from eating beef imported from Canada are low.
The agency said that Canada has established a food management mechanism which is trustworthy and is able to minimize risks to consumers who eat Canadian beef. Taiwan banned imports of Canadian beef products in February last year following confirmation of cases of mad cow disease in Alberta. FDA Director-General Chiang Yu-mei (姜郁美) said the agency had been assessing the possibility of lifting the ban since September last year.

Russia Extends Import Food Ban through End 2017

On June, 29th 2016 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Decree #305, extending the ban on certain imported foods from the United States, Canada, the European Union, Australia, Norway, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, and Lichtenstein until the end of 2017. The Government decree implementing the Decree of the President is still pending publication, but according to Prime
Minister Medvedev the list of products covered by the document will remain unchanged.

Decree #305 is identical to Decree #320 of June, 24th, 2015, except for that the terms are now extended for 18 months, through December 31st, 2017, whereas last year’s decree mandated only a 12-months extension. Source: USDA
Copy of decree.
 http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201606290006#print

Irish manufacturing beef now approved for USA

Minister announces approval

"The Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Michael Creed T.D. today announced that Ireland has secured improved access for Irish beef to the US market, with the decision of authorities there to recognise Ireland’s raw meat control system as equivalent to that of the US. In principle this extends access to include manufacturing beef intended for grinding which is typically used in burgers and similar processed products.  Ireland is the first EU Member State to achieve this status.
Commenting on the news, Minister Creed said “I am delighted with this confirmation that the US authorities have recognised the equivalent standards overseen by my Dept, and granted access to Irish manufacturing beef, building on our existing access from last year. This is the culmination of over a year of intensive work between my Department and its US counterparts. I’d like to take this opportunity to thank my US counterpart Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack and his officials for their collaboration in helping to reach this milestone”.
The decision follows a January 2015 decision to permit access for raw intact beef from Ireland to the US. Since then, there have been intensive discussions between both sides on a range of technical matters to extend access to manufacturing beef intended for grinding. The new US decision paves the way for Industry to undertake the necessary steps that will enable trade to commence.
Beef from the EU has been banned from the US since it imposed its ban for BSE reasons over fifteen years ago. This ban was only formally lifted in March 2014. Ireland was the first EU MS to secure market access in January 2015 and remains the only MS exporting beef to this market to date."

FAO OECD outlook 2016-2015 Meat chapter

FAO OECD released their 2016-2025 outlook for agricultural commodities and the meat chapter is linked here. 

The full report is linked below.

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook_19991142

The world price graphic above shows the sharp rise in meat protein prices globally and the current correction underway. New Zealand lamb is used as the indicator for that product and USA cattle and hogs prices. Interestingly, Brazil poultry is used as the indicator for that product. Brazil being a major international exporter and all proteins represent a reasonable share of global trade in their indicators.

Chinese consumer confidence and meat retail price trends

A worthwhile survey of Chinese consumer confidence indicators was released by ANZ Bank and Roy Morgan in the past few days.

ANZ bank Roy Morgan survey

Full report

ANZ Economist Louis Lam said: “Today's figures suggest that Chinese consumer sentiment basically holds up as domestic financial markets have stabilised. The slight decline in June does not change our impression that the economy continues to transform itself into a consumption-led economy."

Meantime, Chinese pork retail prices may be stabilizing after their strong gains and beef retail prices are holding steady, while mutton trends down.

 based on figures released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, beef prices equate to AUD$13.50 per kg and mutton to AUD$12 per kg.